Puckheads: Goalies
October 13, 2009 by admin · Leave a Comment
Folks:
Love em or hate em. Want em or take them late. YOU NEED A QUALITY GOALIE at some point in the draft.
They account for “only” 3 categories but without these 3 categories you will be hard pressed to win a league title.
Roto is supposedly balanced throughout the season and H2H is more matchup based unless you get a Top 5 netminder.
Much like starting pitching in baseball and every position in football players are tiered.
FIRST LEVEL (TIER) goalies – these are guys worthy of a late first round good choices in rounds 2 or 3 if still available:
#1 Evgeni Nabokov solid team – plays well in regular season – good system – will lead league in wins and possibly challenge 50 (I have him listed at 48/49) – he will play 65-70 games unless injured SHUTOUTS PROJECTION 8
#2 Roberto Luongo will play 60-65 games – has a team that will be very solid in front of him – will have 40-45 wins and could challenge for the GAA title among starting goalies with 45 or more starts SHUTOUTS PROJECTION 7
#3 Mikka Kiprusoff HE IS LISTED at like #312 on the ESPN player rater and slips low in drafts because he is listed so low (MAKE A NOTE OF THIS and if he is still available in leagues in rounds 4 or 5 or 6 I got him in round 8 the other night) GRAB HIM. He plays 65-70 games EVERY year and posts solid GAA – Save % and will have upwards of 45 wins. Another solid choice. SHUTOUTS PROJECTION 6
#4 Marc-Andre Fleury Plays for the Pens so will get plenty of wins (probably 40) – proved last year he can be “the man” between the pipes and should only get better – his GAA and SP% will be average by starting goalie standards though (figure 2.70 & .910 respectively). SHUTOUTS projection 5
#5 Martin Brodeur some will have him ranked higher while others will have him ranked lower. This is because of age and last season’s injury! The man is in a Devils system that year in and year out despite whoever plays in front of him bus into the system and limits shots to about 22 per game and he’ll not have much traffic in front of the net so figure another solid 40 win campaign with a GAA around 2.50 and save percentage about .915
SECOND LEVEL (TIER) goalies – use your judgement based on draft room, goalie runs and your team’s needs. If you haven’t grabbed on of the top 5 IMO and still need a goalie getting one of these guys should become a priority by round 5!!!!!! If you’ve gotten a top 5 guy there isn’t anything saying you can’t sure up your goaltending early and focus on other needs throughout the remainder of the draft!
Goalies 6 thru 12 IMO are interchangeable with strengths and weaknesses HOWEVER all will give you good runs during the season and most play for playoff contending teams (some with hopes of making deep runs).
Simeon Varlamov Caps that’s right forget about Theodore. This guy is for real. He’ll challenge 40 wins and will challenge for the GAA title as well. I think he’ll play 60 games have a GAA of around 2.33 and a save % of .920. He will play for the often offensively challenged Capitals but they will have moments of putting up good numbers against bad teams. Shutout projection 6
Cam Ward Hurricanes he only quietly goes about his business and wins his 35+ games every year with his standard 2.60 GAA and .915 save %. Plays on a team that traditionally hangs around until the end and will challenge for a playoff spot this season in the East. Shutout projection 5
Ryan Miller Sabres will be depended upon to “save” the Sabres and play like they expect (need) him to. A solid choice for 35 wins and pedestrian GAA and SP% SHUTOUT PROJECTION 4
Ray Emery Flyers could be a huge jolt in Philly (we’ve been down the emotional goalie road before – ie Hextall anyone) or a huge bust. Just another name to add to the goalie experiment list in Philly. I think until he gets nabbed speeding along I-95 late after a game one night he’ll be fine. I got him projected as 35-40 wins with a sub 2.60 GAA and about a .915 SP%. Shutout projection 4
Henrik Lundqvist Rangers as Henrik goes so go the Blue Shirts. A 35-40 win season with a sub 2.50 GAA and about .920 SP% will pass! Shutout projection 5
Jonas Hiller Ducks were the playoffs a fluke? What about JS? Well, the Ducks will “platoon” the goalies early and hope for a team to get an injury and want a trade! If that doesn’t happen I have BOTH goalies projected as 35 win talent and NO THE DUCKS AREN’T WINNING 70 games! That means one of them goes! I’m taking the gamble that Hiller is the real deal. He will have a sub 2.40 GAA and post SP% of .920 SHUTOUT PROJECTION 6
Tim Thomas Bruins Yep, the Bruins ARE for real. The team will play well. Thomas will win and he will play well too. Why so low in my rankings? His unorthodox style of goaltending doesn’t sit right with me. He will possibly win the GAA title as he will have a GAA of around 2.25 and a save % of .925 but despite all that I have him projected to only win 35-40 games which puts him among the second tier goalies. Boston also has Tuuka Rask which is a better goalie than Thomas and if the few games Rask sees early are good it will take more games away from Thomas. Shutout projection for Thomas 5 + Rask 3
Third Level (tier) – these guys are serviceable but all have potential HIGH risk with high reward. BUYER BEWARE
Cristobal Huet will have strong GAA and possibly 30-35 wins
Pascal LeClaire depends on what Ottawa team shows up in front of him – could be 25-30 wins w/good GAA or 20-25 wins with horrible GAA
Steve Mason will probably get you the most shutouts in the league but since ESPN doesn’t reward that – he will only have 30+ wins but low GAA
Carey Price is he really gonna play with a clear head in high pressure Montreal? POSSIBLY a 30 game winner
Marty Turco can he regain his old form? If so could be a late round sleeper but pick him too early he could be a early round BUST
Niklas Backstrom Is the starting job really his or is Harding waiting for the first slip? Will he stay out of injury trouble?
Tomas Vokoun ALWAYS a strong GAA and save % but plays in Panthertown and they at times look pathetic. Can he win 15 games ALONE?
Chris Osgood showed he still has flashed if brilliance IN THE PLAYOFFS but another year of .890 SP% and ABOVE 3 GAA won’t cut it in titletown
Pekka Rinne Playing with the Preds could be good? Right?
JS Giguere Is it JS or Hiller? Is the playoff catastrophe behind now? How about a trade to say the East Coast? Do you really think the Islanders are gonna have DiPietro AND Roloson all season?
FOURTH Level (tier) – hope you aren’t selecting BOTH goalies from this group or good luck! Struggles ahead with little good news
Jonathan Quick hockey in LA is an afterthought – does Goldie Hawn still go to games?
Kari Lehtonen yeah ok – is this the year? FINALLY? Whatever
Ilya Bryzgalov sorry Charlie but your team is up for sale, Wayne is gonna be gone SOON and the team is distracted with too much and still too young
Mike Smith tampa is a year away from being a year away
Jonas Gustavson can “the beast” take the job in Toronto – YES but not until mid season
Craig Anderson finally gets hs chance to start – shame they are in rebuilding mode
Vesa Toskala the heir apparent (JONAS) gives Vesa a short leash and little wiggle room for error
Rick DiPietro I have to stop laughing – he signed a 10 year deal right? Has played like 15 games since signing it right? Sorry, still laughing
Nikolai Khabibulin his time has come, gone and past! Edmonton will get a serviceable year out of him but will miss the playoffs!
FIFTH Level (tier) – these guys are emergency starters and backups only – all are quality backups and could be nice “handcuffs” if you so choose but better options are available barring injury to a team’s starter!
Jimmy Howard
Martin Biron
Ty Conklin
Brian Boucher
Dan Ellis
Tuuka Rask
Jose Theodore
Josh Harding
Hope this helped a little
Newman